[Coco] [coco] The German Tank Problem and estimating the number of color computers made

John Guin johnguin at hotmail.com
Thu Oct 20 16:13:19 EDT 2016

The recent thread about math problems got me thinking about the German Tank
Problem :


We can use this rule of thumb to estimate how many color computers were made
(my personal estimate from years ago was 1.3 million).


Anyhow, here's how to do it:

1.       First, everything I have seen is that the serial numbers were
sequential.  There might have been gaps, but that can be compensated (step

2.       We get a list of all the color computer serials numbers everyone
here owns

3.       Compare to the serial numbers produced.  

4.       IIRC, each factory was sequential, but I do not know if the Korean
factory picked up exactly where the other factory left off, but can adjust
with a constant 

5.       Then just apply the formula

6.       Repeat step 5 if we get new data 


Seem reasonable?  




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